Mexico Clausura 2012: Final Preview

Tonight (Thursday) the Estadio Tecnológico, scene of such memorable moments in 1986 (Lineker's hat trick, Ray Wilkins chucking the ball at the ref and getting sent off) hosts the first leg of the final of Clausura 2012, between the home team Monterrey and Santos of Torreón, a swift rematch of the recent CONCACAF Champions League Final which Los Rayados won.

Tonight's home team brushed off América in the semis, a straightforward 2-0 in a torrential storm seeing them prevail after a largely uneventful scoreless draw in the Azteca three days earlier. Basanta and De Nigris got the goals to clinch it. Far more exciting and entertaining was the other semi, between Santos and Monterrey's neighbours and erstwhile defending champions Tigres. The first leg was fairly drawn 1-1, but the real excitement came in the return game on Sunday.

The Chilean Héctor Mancilla put the visiting Tigres 2-0 up and cruising by the 27th minute, the first a well directed header and the second a low shot from the left after dumping Santos' Panamanian defender Felipe Baloy on his arse with a clever change of pace and direction. The match seemed over as a spectacle, and when the usually reliable Lucas Lobos hit a post from point blank range with three quarters of the game gone it didn't seem to matter - it was always going to struggle for excitement after the crazy events of earlier that day in the north of England. Or was it?

In the last four minutes Darwin Quintero twice found striking partner Oribe Peralta with excellent through balls which Peralta was able to convert. Like Mancilla in the same net in the first half a header then with two minutes remaining a left foot shot sealed the tie. The 3-3 aggregate score was enough for Santos to go through, and continue their quest to defy the curse of the superlider.

Monterrey are my favourites, however, they've yet to really get into top gear, whereas Santos have had to play their hearts out to get this far. My prediction for tonight is a 3-1 victory for Los Rayados, with Chupete Suazo amongst the scorers.

Ian


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Mexico Clausura 2012: Semi Finalists as Predicted!

Yes, if only people read this blog and followed my predictions they'd be considerably richer now than they were a week ago! ;-)

In the second legs of the Quarter Finals at the weekend América held on to beat Pachuca 3-2 on aggregate, despite falling 1-0 in the Azteca, thanks to a well struck first half goal from Néstor Vidrio. Chucho Benitez missed a couple of good chances: he seems to have misplaced his shooting boots at the wrong time of the season.

Los Xolos of Tijuana put in another spirited performance at Monterrey, but a 2-2 draw saw them eliminated 4-3 on aggregate. Three players were sent off by the card happy Ricardo Arellano, most crucially for the Rayados including the never far from trouble Angel Reyna.

On Sunday Jaguares got an early goal in Torreón against Santos, but a quick response from Darwin Quintero and Oribe Peralta put the tie out of reach of the side from Chiapas (6-4 on aggregate).

Finally, while a large proportion of the country were watching a former Playboy Playmate stealing the show at a Presidential Election debate Morelia's Argentinian captain Federico Vilar was having an unhappy evening between the sticks against Tigres. It all went wrong in the last 25 minutes: despite only needing a 1-0 win to prevail the team from Michoacán went down 4-1 to go out 5-1 on aggregate. First a shot from defender Hugo Ayala took a deflection which Vilar struggled unsuccessfully to keep out of his net. Then ten minutes later a low Lucas Lobos free kick evaded his grasp, and just a minute later Edno made it 3-0. Miguel Sabah then finally spent enough time not on his arse to pull a goal back, but by then there were only four minutes left. Elás Hernández completed the rout from the spot in injury time.

So the Semi Final lineup is, as predicted, América v Monterrey and Tigres v Santos. The first legs are on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, with the reverse fixtures on Saturday and Sunday. Only América can prevent a second successive all northern final, but I don't think they will, unless Chucho starts scoring again. Monterrey have already won in the Azteca this tournament, though this time they won't have Angel Reyna's skills as a footballer and a wind up artist to call upon. They do have a stronger squad than anyone else though: there can't be many other sides in the country where Neri Cardozo would start a game on the bench. I'll go for a draw in the first leg, if not a victory for the visitors.

Meanwhile the other semi is a repeat of the last final, and closer to call. I'll go for Tigres greater organisation to once again overcome Santos' all guns blazing approach, though they'll need to take a lead to Torreón to stand a chance.

I'll be back next week to crow/make excuses and preview the final.

Ian

Clausura 2012: Quarter Finals Second Legs Preview

Just a quick note to mention that the second legs of the quarter finals begin today (Sat 5th), and equally importantly that my predictions for the first legs came off pretty well! Tigres were indeed the only home team to win in the first legs, 1-0 over Morelia, for whom Miguel Sabah looked less than match fit. América overturned Pachuca 3-1 at the Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca having a perfectly good goal disallowed for offside. I was wrong about América's overdependence on Chucho Benitez though, instead "El Hobbit" Christian Bermudez scored twice. This was far and away his most important contribution to the team since he followed his ex boss at Atlante Miguel Herrera to América at the start of the tournament - up to now he's frequently only been noticed when trudging off to be substituted after another anonimous performance in yellow.

Santos won an exciting game at Jaguares 4-3, with Martinez (2) and Rey scoring for the home team, Daniel Ludueña (2), Oribe Peralta and finally Darwin Quintero getting the goals for the visitors.

Finally, Monterrey were too good for Los Xolos of Tijuana, who, despite a stirring performance in front of 16,000 beer slinging bajacalifornianos now need to overturn a 2-1 deficit in the second leg. No away goals rule remember, plus the lower seeded team needs to win the tie outright to prevent the higher seeded team from progressing.

Likely semi final first leg line up: Tiges v Santos, América v Monterrey.

You read it here first! ;-)

La Liguilla Runners and Riders

A rather nasty ear infection, along with one or two other reasons (like laziness), has prevented me from updating this blog in the last month, but just in case anyone out there in the bloggoverse is reading tonight (Weds 2nd) sees the first legs of the quarter finals of Mexico's Clausura 2012. América travel to Pachuca to open proceedings, followed by Monterrey's visit to Tijuana. Tomorrow night Jaguares entertain Santos, followed by Tigres v Morelia.

The away sides in the first legs are all at least nominal favourites in each of the ties, by virtue of finishing higher in the league table. An aggregate draw over two legs will take the higher placed team through to the semi finals. Having said all that only nine points separated first place from eighth in the final table, so no gulf in class exists within the qualifiers. Santos will be trying to conquer the curse of the superlider, as the team who finishes first rarely if ever wins the tournament.

Notable absentees from the knock out stage are Chivas, Cruz Azul and Pumas - only América of Mexico's big four have made it through. Cruz Azul's failure to beat América in the final league fixture sealed their fate, but Pumas were never really in contention at any stage. The Chivas "revival" was a false dawn - they lost their last five fixtures, including the superclásico and a paricularly ignominious defeat at Tigres which saw three of their players sent off, amongst them Olympic squad members Erick Torres and Marco Fabian. Chivas' Guadalajara neighbours Tecos Estudiantes were the relegated team. To complete the misery for the country's second city Atlas finished the tournament having scored just seven goals in 17 games, only a resolute defence maintaining their Primera Division status.

Predictions? As always predictions in Mexican football are open to derision, due to the inconsistency of the teams. I'll go for Tigres to be the only home team in the first legs to go through, mainly because Lucas Lobos has maintained his form through their recent stutter but also because Morelia's top scorer Miguel Sabah hasn't played for a month due to injury. América should have too much for Pachuca, though they are too dependent on Chucho Benitez for goals (14 out of 30 in the league stage).

Tijuana might fancy their chances against Monterrey, who last week overcame Santos to retain the CONCACAF Champions League. Santos need to pick themselves up and conquer the curse of the superlider, but Jaguares strikers Jackson Martinez and Luis Rey (eight goals each) will exploit any weekness in the Santos defence. Tijuana's qualification is a tremendous achievement in their first season at this level. Hopefully their success will continue, and their stadium will experience the kind of development that will enable this Brit in Baja to get hold of a match ticket occasionally!

Hasta luego...